Challenge and bias in modelling the Arctic air masses and heat exchanges

The Arctic radiates more energy into space than it receives from the sun, creating an energy deficit that is compensated by heat transfer through the atmosphere and ocean. Warm, moist air moves toward the pole, cools, and dries, while cold, dry air leaves the Arctic, gaining heat and moisture over the open ocean.

In a recent study, Felix Pithan et al. assessed the exchange of air masses between the Arctic and lower latitudes in CMIP6 models using radiosonde and surface radiation data from Svalbard. They found that accurately modeling these processes is highly challenging and that significant biases exist. For instance, CMIP6 models exhibit a cold bias over the central Arctic Ocean during winter. They conclude that further research is needed and recommend wind-based sub-sampling of Arctic station data to help identify trends in the central Arctic, where long-term records are limited.