Future snow scenarios for Northern Europe

In North Europe, snow plays a key role in shaping the climate through its ability to reflect sunlight, insulate the ground, and regulate the water cycle. Variations in snow cover can amplify climate changes through powerful feedback mechanisms. Beyond its climatic effects, snow impacts both natural systems and human activities—enabling winter sports and leisure while at times disrupting transportation and energy infrastructure. The timing of snowmelt is crucial for maintaining soil moisture in late spring and early summer, and many ecosystems depend on regular snow cover, leaving them exposed to the risks of a changing winter landscape.

In a recent paper, Räisänen et al. study thirteen CMIP6 models to evaluate future snow scenarios for Northern Europe.

Models indicate a shift toward less snowy conditions with warming—lower largest daily value of snow water equivalent during the winter, and shorter, later-starting, earlier-ending snow seasons. These trends are already visible for the recent past (1951-2023) and are expected to continue through 2100, even intensifying under high-emission scenarios.