In a new study, Julia Selivanova, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Francesco Cocetta analyzed six coupled atmosphere–ocean general models to evaluate the variability in Arctic sea ice properties. Most models effectively simulate the seasonal cycle of sea ice area but struggle with the magnitude of ice growth and retreat, either overestimating or underestimating the seasonal variability. While the models generally reproduce the Arctic-wide marginal ice zone area cycle, they differ in the spatial distribution of sea ice thickness and volume. Most models overestimate ice volume year-round. The study also highlights regional discrepancies in model performance. 

Looking forward to 2015–2050, all models predict a significant decrease in sea ice area and volume with a nearly 95% reduction in volume from 1950 to 2050. 

The model selection predicts that the Arctic will turn ice-free as early as 2047, and the marginal sea-ice zone will dominate the ice cover by 2050, indicating a shift towards an Antarctic-like sea ice regime. 

The study underscores the importance modifications in the model physics and parameterization in the new generations of coupled climate models.